Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish

Texas hasnt gone blue in a statewide race in more than 30 years, but that streak could face a serious test this year. A new Fox News poll finds that while Texas likely voters favor Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate and give incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott an edge in his re-election bid, the Senate race remains deadlocked.

The survey, released Wednesday, finds Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each likely voters in the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to President Trump-backed Paxton.

Last month, Talarico was up by 2 points among likely voters (51%-49%). The shift to a tie reflects Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who backed Cornyn in the primary.

Although Paxton is falling short of Trumps 2024 margins, he has strengthened his support a tad among both men (+1) and women (+1) since September, while Talarico slightly lost support (-1 and -2, respectively).

Talarico leads by wide margins among Black voters (+65 points), urban voters (+29), those under age 30 (+28), and women with a college degree (+23). Paxtons strongest groups include White evangelical Christians (+52), White men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21) and those age 65 and up (+18).

The survey finds Hispanic voters swinging back toward the Democrats. After backing former President Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020, they favored Trump by 1 point in 2024, according to the Texas Fox News Voter Analysis. This key voting bloc now favors Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) and prefers Democratic control of the U.S. Senate by 29 points.

Overall, when it comes to Senate control, Texans choose Republicans by 4 points (51% to 47%), up from +1 point in September.

Talaricos stronger party loyalty is another reason the race is close: 98% of Democrats support him, compared with 90% of Republicans supporting Paxton. Nearly 3 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans cross party lines to back Talarico.

Democrats also retain an enthusiasm edge: 69% are extremely interested in this years election, compared with 61% of . Extremely interested voters back Talarico by 7 points.

"The race is going to come down to two basic questions," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?"

Views of Talarico are net positive, albeit by just 1 point (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Paxtons ratings are underwater by 17 (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Among "double haters," voters who view both candidates negatively, Paxton leads by 50 points.

Voters express similar levels of concern about both candidates: 53% worry Talaricos positions are too liberal, while 50% are concerned Paxton is too close to Trump. The intensity of these concerns is nearly identical, with 36% extremely concerned about Talarico and 37% about Paxton.

In 2024, Trump won the Lone Star State by nearly 14 points, but his job rating is currently underwater by 9 points (45% approve, 54% disapprove). Still, Paxton draws support from 13% of voters who disapprove of Trump, while 6% of back Talarico.

When it comes to their personal finances, more than twice as many voters say they are worse off (43%) than better off (20%) compared with two years ago; 36% say they are about the same.

Voters who are worse off back Talarico by 45 points, while those who are better off (+49) or about the same (+26) favor Paxton.

The governors race gives Republicans more breathi