Frontline NATO ally shares shocking take on Russian invasion threat

NEW YORK — Fears that Russia is preparing for a broader war with NATO aren't rattling Estonia's foreign minister, who told Fox News Digital that his countrys intelligence sees no signs Moscow is preparing for a full-scale invasion of the alliance.

"We have more and more this kind of panic in Europe that Russia will invade and will be full-scale aggressive against NATO and Europe and the Baltic states, Poland," Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in an interview on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York City before quipping, "But we dont see it."

Estonia shares a roughly 180-mile border with Russia and has long been among NATOs most vocal members warning about the threat from Moscow under President Vladimir Putin. But Tsahkna drew a distinction between preparations for a conventional attack and the growing campaign of drone incursions, sabotage, cyberattacks and other provocations that European governments have blamed on Russia.

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"Our intelligence, we see very, very deep into Russia, we dont see any change," Tsahkna said. "We dont see that Russia is preparing a full-scale invasion or aggression. The other side of our borders is pretty empty."

Tsahkna, who served as Estonias defense minister from 2016 to 2017, contrasted the current picture with what he saw a decade ago, when he said roughly 120,000 Russian troops were positioned across the regions borders and could be ready to move within 48 hours.

"Its empty," he said of the Russian side of Estonias border today.

His assessment comes as European officials grapple with a series of Russian airspace violations and suspected hybrid attacks, including a Russian military helicopter that crossed into Polish airspace Wednesday. Polands military said the incursion appeared to be another attempt to test the readiness of its air defenses.

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European and NATO officials have also warned that Russia could rebuild sufficient military capability to pose a direct threat to the alliance in the coming years. Estonias own intelligence service said earlier this year that it saw no Russian intention to attack a NATO member in the immediate term, while warning that Moscows military reforms are increasing its longer-term capabilities.

Tsahkna argued that the more immediate threat is a Russian campaign of provocations and hybrid attacks designed to remain below NATOs Article 5 threshold.

"What Russia is doing now is waging these attacks, which are not crossing Article 5," he said. "Its sabotage attacks, terror attacks."

"The main purpose for Putin is to play with the Western part of the fear of escalation," Tsahikna went on. "Hes trying to divide the Western parts of the world. Divide the unity, divide this kind of consensus."

Estonia has dealt with GPS interference, cyberattacks and disinformation it has attributed to Russia, while drones have also crossed into its airspace as the war in neighboring Ukraine continues.

Tsahkna said Estonia recorded roughly 40,000 cyberattacks last year, a particular challenge for a country where virtually all public services are available online.

"We are witnessing already, yes, any kind of different level attacks," he said. "Unfortunately, its already like normality."

Tsahkna said NATO needs to become more flexible in r